Saxo Bank makes technical analysis actionable with unprecedented integration of Autochartist

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, today announces that it is collaborating with Autochartist to make automated technical analysis tools and live trade signals available to clients directly in the SaxoTraderGO platform.

“With the deep integration of Autochartist we further enhance the analysis tools available to clients. There is no need to open other browsers, run applications or third-party setups. The deep integration works seamlessly across devices and makes technical analysis and live trade signals actionable right at the clients’ fingertips,” said Kim Cramer Larsson, Platform Manager & Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank.

Adding to this, Ilan Azbel, CEO, Autochartist said,

“Saxo’s collaboration with Autochartist is an example of how a forward thinking broker uses technical analysis to provide simple, meaningful and actionable content to its clients. The level of integration is unprecedented in the industry by fully integrating content into the entire trading experience of its client; from position open, to setting exit levels. Such deep consideration for the clients’ well-being is what makes Saxo a leader in the industry,”

Autochartist’s advanced algorithms constantly monitor global markets and deliver live trade signals through a wide range of parameters based on technical analysis.

Each trade signal presents a simple overview of the underlying analysis and an automatically calculated entry price, take-profit target and stop loss that clients can trade directly in the platform as opportunities occur in the market.

“Digesting the market for trade signals using technical analysis is usually a time consuming process and requires in-depth knowledge. This new tool lets technology do the work automatically and enables clients to cover and analyse the market across asset classes with much greater efficiency.  Autochartist provides the analysis and live signals enabling clients to make independent, well-informed decisions as trading opportunities occur,” said Kim Cramer Larsson, Saxo Bank.

The depth of the integration allows clients to apply highly customizable filters to hone in on opportunities aligned with their preferred asset classes and trading strategies, as well as alerting clients to important market events on their preferred assets.

“Clients with experience in technical analysis can use the feature to cover more instruments and streamline time consuming market research. Whereas clients less familiar with technical analysis can leverage AutoChartist to further enhance their trading strategies by including the technical element in the decision-making process,” said Kim Cramer Larsson, Saxo Bank.

As further testament to Saxo Bank’s global presence the new Autochartist feature will be made available in more than 20 different languages as it is rolled out in all markets in the coming weeks.

Autochartist covers more than 50 currency pairs, 200 stocks, the biggest indices, as well as the major commodities and is free to all Saxo clients. The feature will also be available to white label clients.

Q1 2017 Quarterly Outlook: The 1970s all over again

 

The direction of the US dollar is the key question for 2017 because a currency that is up 20% over the past year will trigger a reaction, and the incoming Trump administration can be expected to jettison the more than 20-year-old dogma that a strong dollar is in the US’ interest.

Welcome to 2017 and Trump-mania, a world where tweets set the agenda randomly across the US and where being unorthodox is the new black. For all the guess work we can do on Donald Trump and his new policies, the key questions remain the same:

What is the general direction of the US dollar?

Where is China’s currency and growth headed in 2017?

Is the double whammy of Brexit/Trump the end of a cycle, or the beginning of something new?

What’s the most important question of the three? That’s the direction of the US dollar. We have such a simplified economic world, or globalised market, that dollar represents in excess of 75% of all transactions globally.

So, when the US dollar is up over 20% year-on-year — as it is now — there will be a “reaction” to the “action”. This reaction will be a considerable slowdown in growth in the US driven by higher-than-expected interest rates (which reduce potential growth) and indirectly also by reducing global growth as the heavy burden of US-dominated debt hurts emerging markets’ ability to repay their excessive loans in dollars.

Foreign banks have lent $3.6 trillion to companies in emerging markets, and roughly 50% of that amount is to China, so questions one and two are interlinked.

The risk of recession is increasing. My good friends at NedBank, South Africa, Neels Heyneke and Mehul Daya, have the best recession model I have seen, combining monetary conditions with fundamentals. The present reading: 60% probability of recession against a market consensus of only 5-8%.

This is a big risk as we know that stock market selloffs mainly occur in recession times. The expected drawdown would be 25-40% if recession hits the US economy.

We can’t ignore the voices of populism in the US, but also shouldn’t overlook them in Europe in an election year. But rest assured, this is the end of a cycle, not a new beginning. The world will not move forward on an agenda of closed borders, anti-globalisation and trade restrictions, and against competition, but nevertheless these forces need to be respected, especially as we see a change of leadership in the global arena.

Trump taking the US “back home” on trade, overseas troops, Nato and reversing a China policy in place since the 1970s will have consequences. German chancellor Angela Merkel is now the de facto leader of the developed world, a position she never wanted and feels uncomfortable in during an election year for Germany. China will fill any vacuum left behind by the US changing course.

The Chinese leadership seems more “open” than ever before on foreign policy and investment, partly out of opportunity and partly by virtue of a desperate need to draw attention away from ever rising domestic debt and capital outflows.

China will most likely continue to weaken the CNY and CNH to the tune of 5-10% — probably gradually, but, if forced, also through another “devaluation” as retaliation for US policy.

The incoming Trump administration is, to my mind, clearly going to pursue a “weak US dollar” policy. The whole rhetoric of China’s currency being too weak, of course, implies that the USD is too strong. But – just wait – Trump will also change the dogma whereby a “strong dollar is in the interest of the US”, in place since Bill Clinton’s treasury secretary, Robert Rubin, launched it in the mid-1990s (though in fact it never was the executed strategy).

It evokes the 1970s and the Nixon doctrine of August 1971 when treasury secretary John Connally introduced a unilateral 10% surcharge on all dutiable imports, a 10% reduction in foreign assistance expenditure, closed the “gold window” (so the USD was no longer freely convertible into gold) and imposed a 90-day moratorium on wages and prices.

It seems like the Trump doctrine is adopting this as a pattern for its new corporate tax and trade policies “tweeted” so far by the president-elect.

Yes, this is very much like the ’1970s all over again – when US policy was about big business, closed borders, recession (1973-75) and a US dollar regime that could be defined by Connally’s famous words to European finance ministers at the G-10 meeting in Rome: “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.” That killed the Bretton Wood system and cemented a 20% devaluation of the dollar.

The first quarter will bring us some clues, but as time goes by, expect a Trump doctrine that is a mixture of Nixon and Reagan, and watch out for big volatility.  The real conclusion, however, for all of 2017 may be that geopolitical risk matters. Welcome to the beginning of the end for the pretend-and-extend era in monetary policy.

Saxo Bank’s 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2017

Will this be the year when China exceeds growth expectations, Brexit turns into Bremain, the Mexican peso soars and Italian banks turn out to the best performing equity asset class?

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has today released its annual set of ‘Outrageous Predictions’ for the year ahead.

Continuing in the tradition of making a selection of calls aimed at provoking conversation on what might surprise or shock the investment returns in the year ahead this year’s predictions cover a range of scenarios, including a Chinese growth rebound, an Italian bank rally, Brexit giving way to Bremain and the EU’s willingness to change in the face of populist backlash, among others. The Outrageous Predictions should not be considered Saxo’s official market outlook, it is instead the events and market moves deemed outliers with huge potentials for upsetting consensus views.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, commented: “After a year in which reality has managed to surpass even seemingly unlikely calls – with the Brexit surprise and the US election outcome – the common theme for our Outrageous Predictions for 2017 is that desperate times call for desperate actions.

“With change always happening in times of crisis, 2017 may be a wakeup call which sees a real departure from the ‘business as usual’, both in central bank expansionism and government austerity policies which have characterized the post-2009 crisis.

“As some of our past outrageous predictions have turned out to be far less outrageous that at first thought, it is important that investors are aware of the range of possibilities outside of the market consensus so that they can make informed decisions, even in seemingly unlikely market scenarios.”

It is in this spirit that we release Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2017:

1.China GDP swells to 8% and the SHCOMP hits 5,000

China understands that it has reached the end of the road of its manufacturing and infrastructure growth phase and, through a massive stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, opens up capital markets to successfully steer a transition to consumption-led growth. This results in 8% growth in 2017, with the resurgence owing to the growth in the services sector. Euphoria over private consumption-driven growth sees the Shanghai Composite Index double from its 2016 level, surpassing 5,000.

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2.Desperate Fed follows BoJ lead to fix 10-year Treasuries at 1.5%

As US dollar and US interest rates rise in increasingly painful fashion in 2017, the testosterone driven fiscal policy of the new US President leads US 10-year yields to reach 3%, causing market panic. On the verge of disaster, the Federal Reserve copies the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control, by fixing the 10-year Government yield at 1.5%, but from a different angle, effectively introducing QE4 or QE Endless. This in turn promptly stops the selloff in global equity and bond markets, leading to the biggest gain for bond markets in seven years. Critical voices are lost in the roar of yet another central bank-infused rally.

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3.High-yield default rate exceeds 25%

With  the long-term average default rate for high yield bonds being 3.77%, jumping during the US recessions of 1990, 2000 and 2009 to 16%, 10% and 12% respectively, 2017 sees default rates as high as 25%. As we reach the limits of central bank intervention, governments around the world move towards fiscal stimulus, leading to a rise in interest rates (ex Japan), thus steepening the yield curve dramatically. As trillions of corporate bonds face the world of hurt, the problem is exacerbated by a rotation away from bond funds, widening spreads and making refinancing of low grade debt impossible. With default rates reaching 25%, inefficient corporate actors are no longer viable allowing for a more efficient allocation of capital.

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4.Brexit never happens as the UK Bremains

The global populist uprising, seen across both sides of the Atlantic, disciplines the EU leadership into a more cooperative stance towards the UK. As negotiations progress, the EU makes key concessions on immigration and on passporting rights for UK-based financial services firms, and by the time Article 50 is triggered and put before Parliament, it is turned down in favour of the new deal. The UK is kept within the EU’s orbit, the Bank of England hikes the rate to 0.5% and EURGBP plummets to 0.7300 – invoking the symbolism of 1973, the year of UK’s entry into the EEC.

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5.Doctor copper catches a cold

Copper was one of the clear commodity winners following the US election; however in 2017 the market begins to realise that the new president will struggle to deliver the promised investments and the expected increase in copper demand fails to materialise. Faced with growing discontent at home, President Trump turns up the volume on protectionism, introducing trade barriers that will spell trouble for emerging markets as well as Europe. Global growth starts weakening while China’s demand for industrial metals slows as it move towards a consumption-led growth. Once HG Copper breaches a trend-line support, going back all the way to 2002 at $2/lb, the floodgates open and a wave of speculative selling helps send copper down to the 2009 financial-crisis low at $1.25/lb.
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6.Huge gains for Bitcoin as cryptocurrencies rise

Under President Trump the US fiscal spending increases the US budget deficit from $600 billion to $1.2-1.8 trillion. This causes US growth and inflation to sky rocket, forcing the Federal Reserve to accelerate the hike and the US dollar reaches new highs. This creates a domino effect in emerging markets, and particularly China, who start looking for alternatives to the fiat money system dominated by the US dollar and its over-reliance on US monetary policy. This leads to an increased popularity of cryptocurrency alternatives, with Bitcoin benefiting the most. As the banking systems and the sovereigns of Russia and China move to accept Bitcoin as a partial alternative to the USD, Bitcoin triples in value, from the current $700 level to $2,100.

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7.US healthcare reform triggers sector panic

Healthcare expenditure is around 17% of GDP compared to the world average of 10% and an increasing share of US population cannot pay for their medical bills. The initial relief rally in healthcare stocks after Trump’s victory quickly fades into 2017 as investors realise that the administration will not go easy on healthcare but instead launches sweeping reforms of the unproductive and expensive US healthcare system. The Health Care Sector SPDF Fund ETF plunges 50% to $35, ending the most spectacular bull market in US equities since the financial crisis.

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8.Despite Trump, Mexican peso soars especially against CAD

The market has drastically overestimated Donald Trump’s true intention or even ability to crack down on trade with Mexico, allowing the beaten-down peso to surge. Meanwhile Canada suffers as higher interest rates initiate a credit crunch in the housing market. Canadian banks buckle under, forcing the Bank of Canada into quantitative easing mode and injecting capital into the financial system. Additionally, CAD underperforms as Canada enjoys far less of the US’ growth resurgence than it would have in the past because of the longstanding hollowing out of Canada’s manufacturing base transformed from globalisation and years of an excessively strong currency. CADMXN corrects as much as 30% from 2016 highs.

9.Italian banks are the best performing equity asset

German banks are caught up in the spiral of negative interest rates and flat yield curves and can’t access the capital markets. In the EU framework, a German bank bailout inevitably means an EU bank bailout, and this comes not a moment too soon for the Italian banks which are saddled with non-performing loans and a stagnant local economy. The new guarantee allows the banking system to recapitalise and a European Bad Debt Bank is established to clean up the balance sheet of the eurozone and get the bank credit mechanism to work again. Italian bank stocks rally more than 100%.

10.EU stimulates growth through mutual euro bonds

Faced with the success of populist parties in Europe, and with the dramatic victory of Geert Wilders far-right party in the Netherlands, traditional political parties begin moving away from austerity policies and favouring instead Keynesian-style policies launched by President Roosevelt post the 1929 crisis. The EU launches a stimulus six-year plan of EUR 630 billion backed by EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, however to avoid dilution resulting from an increase in imports, the EU leaders announce the issuance of EU bonds, at first geared towards €1 trillion of infrastructure investment, reinforcing the integration of the region and prompting capital inflows into the EU.

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The whole publication “Outrageous Predictions for 2017” and more details can be found here:

http://pl.saxobank.com/campaigns/Pages/outrageous-predictions-2017.aspx

https://www.tradingfloor.com/publications/outrageous-predictions